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Geopolitical Analysis: How to Separate Signal from Noise in Conflict Regions

Updated: Sep 3


For decision-makers in global companies and institutions, traditional geopolitical reports are too slow and too shallow. Generic AI tools summarise what’s public, but they miss the blind spots that shape real risks.


Geopolitical analysis without new data is guesswork. See how evAI revealed blind-spot risks in Mali and DR Congo in 10 days

evAI’s Geopolitical Analysis service fills that gap. By combining Semantic Analysis with trusted journalists and partners on the ground, we create new, validated insight data — not just recycled reports. This post shows how our method worked in Mali (terrorist activity of JNIM) and the DR Congo (cobalt and conflict supply chains).


Map of violent conflicts in Mali and the Sahel region with overlay from Twitter monitoring of JNIM terrorist expansion; shows how evAI combines event data with social media signals to detect attacks and extremist narratives.
Geopolitical Analysis: AI-powered monitoring of violent events in Mali and the Sahel, using social media sources like Twitter to detect and verify terrorist activities in real time.


How can leaders separate noise from ground truth in conflict regions?


TL;DR: Hybrid analysis: Semantic Analysis, investigation into open-source data, and local verification cuts through misinformation and reveals what’s actually happening. #monitoring


Geopolitical Analysis - Map of violent conflicts in Mali and the Sahel with Twitter feed overlay; shows evAI’s combination of event data and social media signals to monitor terrorist expansion.
Geopolitical Analysis - AI-powered monitoring of violent events in Mali and the Sahel, using social media sources like Twitter to detect and verify terrorist activities in real time.

Evidence:

  • Event data + social signals: Monitoring 1,400+ conflict events and 4,800 fatalities in Mali (HIIK, ACLED) enriched with Twitter/Telegram alerts.

  • Ground-truth partners: Local think tanks and journalist networks validate incidents beyond digital sources.

  • Hybrid model: Prevents reliance on scraped social noise or biased international reports.





Why do resource conflicts in Africa matter for global markets?


TL;DR: Control of cobalt in DR Congo makes African conflicts a direct risk to EV, energy, and tech supply chains. #resources


Evidence:

  • Concentration risk: DR Congo dominates global cobalt mining (HHI index ~2,000 = highly concentrated).

  • Downstream exposure: China refines 60%+ of cobalt, shaping EV battery and hydrogen transitions.

  • Conflict overlap: Mining hotspots coincide with regions of high violence and militia activity.



Geopolitical Analysis: Composite graphic showing Africa’s mineral and energy deposits alongside violent conflict regions, plus tables of the largest cobalt producers worldwide; highlights the link between DR Congo’s cobalt resources and instability in the Sahel.
Geopolitical Analysis - Africa’s raw material deposits and conflict hotspots — DR Congo dominates global cobalt production, creating high geopolitical risk for global supply chains.


What makes Semantic Analysis different from LLM summaries?


TL;DR: Semantic Analysis generates new data; LLMs can only repackage existing text. #difference


Mali’s 1,400+ conflict events, Congo’s cobalt monopoly, China’s refining dominance: risks no LLM summary can capture.

Evidence:

  • New data points: evAI surfaces blind-spot signals (e.g., extremist propaganda patterns, militia resource ties).

  • Multimodal depth: Beyond text, evAI analyses faces, logos, transcripts, and in-image text.

  • Validated insight: Each AI finding is checked with regional experts to avoid hallucinations.



Geopolitical Analysis - Screenshot and analysis layers from Facebook video content: face recognition of Iyad ag Ghali, scene detection of armed convoys, text-in-image reading, and brand/logo recognition. Demonstrates evAI’s semantic depth in analysing terrorist propaganda and narratives.
Geopolitical Analysis - Multimodal analysis of extremist propaganda: evAI extracts insights from faces, logos, scenes, and embedded text in videos and images to reveal actors and narratives.


What are the 5 key criteria for choosing a geopolitical analysis provider?


TL;DR: Look for speed, depth, validation, transparency, and integration into workflows. #criteria


Evidence:

  1. Speed: Insight delivery in <5 days, not months.

  2. Depth: Ability to work with scarce, heterogeneous data sources.

  3. Validation: A Combination of AI and trusted local partners.

  4. Transparency: Clear data provenance and methodology.

  5. Integration: Outputs structured for ESG, risk, and compliance teams.




Build or buy: Why not just use public LLMs for geopolitical analysis?


TL;DR: LLMs can summarise — but without original data, you risk blind spots and false confidence. #build-vs-buy


Evidence:

  • LLMs recycle: Outputs limited to what’s online.

  • evAI generates: New primary insights (e.g., militia resource flows, propaganda self-definitions).

  • Risk: Misguided decisions if the analysis lacks ground truth.



What does a 5-day rollout look like for a geopolitical project?


TL;DR: In 5-10 days, evAI can deliver validated insight data tailored to your risk questions. #rollout


Evidence:

  • Day 1: Define research question + scope.

  • Day 2: Semantic scan of digital + media sources.

  • Day 3: Local partner outreach and validation.

  • Day 4: Cross-check data and build semantic models.

  • Day 5: Deliver insight package with blind-spot findings.



FAQ


  • How fast can insights be delivered? Within 5-10 business days.

  • Which regions can you cover? Any, with partner networks and semantic methods.

  • Do you replace LLMs? No — we fuel them with new data.

  • Is this useful for ESG compliance? Yes, especially for raw materials and supply chains.

  • Can we get ongoing monitoring? Yes, subscription monitoring is available.

  • What if no digital data exists? Ground-truth partners fill the gap.



Methods & Data appendix


  • Sources used: ACLED database, HIIK conflict research, Timbuktu Centre (Mali), Friends of the Congo.

  • Analysis methods: Semantic Analysis and modelling of text, multimodal image/video analysis, and local partner validation.

  • Data plan (future): Mini-survey of risk/intelligence leaders on confidence in LLM vs. hybrid models. Proposed schema: Region | Source type | Validation method | Confidence level | Decision impact.




Request a Geopolitical Fit Assessment for Your Market Exposure.


Evaluate how evAI can de-risk your supply chains and regional strategies in 5-10 days.

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