"We are witnessing a breakdown of the monetary order."—Billionaire investor Ray Dalio

The U.S. and global economies are facing a dangerous convergence of systemic breakdowns—economic, political, and geopolitical—that resemble past turbulent periods like the 1930s. Tariffs, debt, and political polarization are not isolated issues, but symptoms of a broader "changing of the world order."

evAI Political Analysis: "We have a breaking down of the monetary order." - Ray Dalio

Key Problems Identified - The Big Cycle: A Historic Pattern of Decline

Breakdown of the monetary order - Summary of an NBC Meet the Press interview with Ray Dalio

"Monetary Order" -Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, tells Meet the Press that Trump’s economic agenda could lead to a “breaking down of the monetary order” as the president ramps up tariffs on China. We transcribed the video interview and summarized key statements in favor of actionable results.

Five recurring forces throughout history that have led to major upheavals:

• Debt/Money Cycle: Excessive debt leads to a breaking point—current U.S. debt levels are unsustainable.

• Internal Conflict: Growing inequality and value gaps are fueling left-right polarization.

• Geopolitical Tensions: The global shift from U.S.-led multilateralism to a more fragmented, conflict-prone unilateral world—especially rising China vs. U.S.

• Acts of Nature: Pandemics, climate disruptions add pressure.

• Technological Shifts: Rapid change can destabilize social/economic structures.

These are interacting at the same time, increasing the risk of disorder.

Tariffs & Trump’s Role

• Trump’s tariff policies are part of a bigger conflict—not just economic, but geopolitical and ideological.

• Dalio doesn’t oppose tariffs per se but warns that how they are implemented—whether practical or chaotic—determines if they lead to healthy restructuring or economic collapse.

• So far, the approach has been disruptive, akin to “throwing rocks in the global supply chain.”

What’s at Stake

Dalio warns of a possible “breaking down of the monetary order”—like the end of the gold standard in 1971 or the 2008 financial crisis, only potentially worse.

Worst-case scenario?

• Collapse in the value of money (inflation/devaluation of bonds)

• Deep internal political instability

• Escalation to international (possibly military) conflict

Parallels to the 1930s

A time of

• Debt crises

• Protectionism (e.g., Smoot-Hawley tariffs)

• Political radicalization

• Eventually, global war

What To Do About It

1. Fix Fiscal Imbalances

• Reduce U.S. deficit to 3% of GDP (currently ~7%)

• Dalio calls for a "3% Pledge" from Congress, emphasizing bipartisan cooperation, as seen in the 1990s.

2. Handle Geopolitics with Strategic Diplomacy

• Use American strength wisely in trade and diplomacy.

• Avoid chaos by focusing on mutual problem-solving, not zero-sum competition.

3. Recognize the Bigger Picture

• Stop treating crises as isolated events.

• Recognize the historic cycle, and act early to restructure, not collapse.